Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons From Risk Management And Risk Assessment

Cambridge University Press, 8/7/2008
EAN 9780521709606, ISBN10: 0521709601

Paperback, 338 pages, 22.9 x 15.2 x 2 cm
Language: English

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

1. Introduction Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon
2. How to build a warning system Paul Bracken
3. Intelligence management as risk management
the case of surprise attack Uzi Arad
4. Nuclear proliferation epidemiology
uncertainty, surprise, and risk management Lewis A. Dunn
5. Precaution against terrorism Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener
6. Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty Paul K. Davis
7. Managing energy security risks in a changing world Coby van der Linde
8. What markets miss
political stability frameworks and country risk Preston Keat
9. The risk of failed state contagion Jeffrey Herbst
10. Conclusion
managing strategic surprise Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon.