An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic
Cambridge University Press
Edition: Illustrated, 9/6/2001
EAN 9780521772877, ISBN10: 0521772877
Hardcover, 322 pages, 25.4 x 17.8 x 1.9 cm
Language: English
Originally published in English
This is an introductory 2001 textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of this book are a lively and vigorous prose style; lucid and systematic organization and presentation of ideas; many practical applications; a rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science; numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed; and a full bibliography of further reading.
Part I. Logic
1. Logic
2. What is inductive logic?
Part II. How to Calculate Probabilities
3. The gambler's fallacy
4. Elementary probability
5. Conditional probability
6. Basic laws of probability
7. Bayes' rule
Part III. How to Combine Probabilities and Utilities
8. Expected value
9. Maximizing expected value
10. Decision under uncertainty
Part IV. Kinds of Probability
11. What do you mean?
12. Theories about probability
Part V. Probability as a Measure of Belief
13. Personal probabilities
14. Coherence
15. Learning from experience
Part VI. Probability as Frequency
16. Stability
17. Normal approximations
18. Significance
19. Confidence and inductive behaviour
Part VII. Probability Applied to Philosophy
20. The philosophical problem of induction
21. Learning from experience as an evasion of the problem
22. Inductive behaviour as an evasion of the problem.