The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction
Cambridge University Press
Edition: New, 10/21/2021
EAN 9781009018043, ISBN10: 1009018043
Paperback, 398 pages, 22.9 x 15.2 x 2.3 cm
Language: English
Originally published in English
Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.
List of figures
Preface
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Part I. The Past
1. Deducing weather
The dawn of computing
2. Predicting weather
The butterfly and the tornado
3. The greenhouse effect
Goldilocks and the three planets
4. Deducing climate
Smagorinsky's laboratory
5. Predicting climate
Butterflies in the greenhouse
6. The ozone hole
Black swan at the polar dawn
7. Global warming
From gown to town. Part II
The Present
8. Occam's razor
The reduction to simplicity
9. Constraining climate
A conservative view of modeling
10. Tuning climate
A comedy of compensating errors
11. Occam's beard
The emergence of complexity
12. The Hansen paradox
The red Queen's race of climate modeling
13. The Rumsfeld matrix
Degrees of knowledge
14. Lost in translation
15. Taking climate models seriously, not literally. Part III. The Future
16. Moore's law
To exascale and beyond
17. Machine learning
The climate imitation game
18. Geoengineering
Reducing the fever
19. Pascal's wager
Hedging our climate bets
20. Moonwalking into the future. Epilogue. Glossary. Selected Bibliography. References. Index. Endnotes.